Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Flu update: mostly in Southern Hemisphere


No more (well, almost no more) flu in Northern Hemisphere, but the Southern Hemisphere is cooling down. 
Flu activity is low throughout  the US and Canada. The only country in Europe reporting moderate flu levels is Armenia. Google trends shows slightly increased activity in Norway, but this may be an artifact of searches. 


According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO, respiratory illness activity in Chile and Argentina was increasing between Week 12 (March 21-27) and Week 18 (May 2-8). However, almost all of this activity was attributed to non-influenza viruses. Google trends predicts increased activity in Brazil.

Influenza activity was low in tropical regions, Australia and New Zealand. According to the Australia Department of Health and Ageing, the number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases decreased in recent weeks, although it remains higher than during the same period in 2010.



South Africa National Institute for Communicable Diseases reported low influenza activity as of May 1. According to Google flu trends, however, flu levels increased in the end of May. 

Saturday, May 14, 2011

How cold is cold enough? How humid is really humid?

How cold is too cold? How windy is really windy? It depends on where you live. If you are from the South you will need a blanket if it's below 50 degrees Fahrenheit (10 °C). If you are accustomed to cold weather, 70 (20+ C) is too hot.  For residents of Oymyakon in Eastern Siberia with average winter temperature of -49°F (−45°C) and record low -90°F (-67.7°C), -30°F (−34.4°C)  is pretty pleasant. If you live in Cold Bay, Alaska, 15 miles per hour is not really windy, while in Oak Ridge, Tennessee average wind blows at only 4 miles per hour.

In general,
110 Fahrenheit is considered dangerously hot
100° F may be hazardous
90° F is uncomfortably hot
80-40 is considered a relatively comfortable range - the average surface temperature of the Earth is 59° F
30° F is uncomfortably cold
15° F is very cold (although for avid runners cold is below 10 F with winds over 15 mph)
0° F is bitter cold with significant risk of frostbite

But let's take a closer look at the world's climate, mostly defined by long-term (30 years) patterns in temperature and precipitation:


Purple regions (A) in this map are hot and rainy year around. Orange areas (B) are dry with little rain and a large range of daily temperatures. Green areas are two-season climates with warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. Blue regions (C) have continental climates with distinct four seasons and moderate precipitation. E denote cold areas with permanent ice and tundra. Only about four out of twelve months temperature in these areas raises above freezing.

3 most windy cities in US (seasonal wind averages are given in miles per hour):
City                JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    ANN
MT. WASHINGTON, NH  46.1   44.3   41.4   35.8   29.7   27.3   25.3   24.7   28.8   33.8   39.5   44.5   35.1
ST. PAUL ISLAND, AK 19.9   20.0   18.8   17.4   14.9   13.6   12.1   13.7   15.4   17.4   20.0   20.1   16.9
COLD BAY,AK         17.5   17.9   17.4   17.5   16.2   15.8   15.6   16.2   16.2   16.6   17.5   17.5   16.8

10 most humid cities in US:
No. 10: Olympia, WA
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average annual precipitation days: 163
Highest precipitation month: November
No. 9: Houston, TX
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average annual precipitation days: 105
Highest precipitation month: June
No. 8: Brownsville, TX
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average annual precipitation days: 73
Highest precipitation month: September
No. 7: Victoria, TX
Average relative humidity: 78.5%
Average annual precipitation days: 91
Highest precipitation month: May

Average relative humidity: 78.5%
Average annual precipitation days: 77
Highest precipitation month: September
Average relative humidity: 79.5%
Average annual precipitation days: 104
Highest precipitation month: June
Average relative humidity: 78.5%
Average annual precipitation days: 77
Highest precipitation month: September
Average relative humidity: 81%
Average annual precipitation days: 193
Highest precipitation month: November
Average relative humidity: 83%
Average annual precipitation days: 209
Highest precipitation month: November
No. 1: Quillayute, WA
Average relative humidity: 83.5%
Average annual precipitation days: 209
Highest precipitation month: November 

Highest Average Annual Precipitation Extremes in the World

Continent Highest
Avg.
(Inches)
Place Elevation
(Feet)
Years
of
Record

South America 523.6 * Lloro, Colombia 520 29

Asia 467.4 * Mawsynram, India 4597 38

Oceania 460.0 * Mt. Waialeale, Kauai, HI 5148 30

Africa 405.0 Debundscha, Cameroon 30 32

South America 354.0  Quibdo, Colombia 120 16

Australia 340.0 Bellenden Ker, Queensland 5102 9

North America 256.0 Henderson Lake, British Colombia 12 14

Europe 183.0 Crkvica, Bosnia-Hercegovina 3337 22
* The value given is continent's highest and possibly the world's depending on measurement practices, procedures and period of record variations.  

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Allergy Seasons in Alaska

Internet  offers many allergy resources for US States. Examples are pollen.com providing allergy forecasts for US zip codes and American Academy of Allergy sources of allergy levels reported by certified counting stations. Weather.com features pollen maps too.  Neither of these sites, however, tells anything about Alaska and Hawaii.

Actually Alaska's Aerobiology is similar to Northern Europe, with some tree patterns resembling northern states of US. Pollination of poplar  - food for honey bees - starts in April - as in Michigan. Birch is very high in May - as in Russia and Scandinavia. Grass is active in June and July. A core pollen season of prophylactic and clinical urgency in Fairbanks and Anchorage is defined from May 10 to June 5.

You may want to visit Anchorage Daily news site  and Anchorage Pollen and Mold Reporting or Fairbanks area report to find today' allergy information for Alaska, or check Dr. Anderson's calendar below.  It is based on the observations made for six seasons: 1982-1987, from three sample locations in Fairbanks area, but represents a good prototype for other parts of Alaska.

 
This pollen calendar shows the range of possible atmospheric pollen concentrations for late April through July, assuming the weather is relatively warm, dry, and breezy.
pollen calendar
Reference: James H. Anderson, MLIS, PhD, Institute of Arctic Biology and BioSciences Library, University of Alaska Fairbanks


Thursday, March 31, 2011

Do you have a runny nose?

Most likely this is not flu. Flu season is over in the Western Hemisphere and almost over on the East.
Google trends (on the right) show low activity in line with actual epidemiological data. As of March 20 (end of week # 11, 2011), flu activity in Europe and Russia is decreasing, and the peak is over in 38 countries of the region. Flu levels remain moderate in Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, some areas of Russia, and Ukraine where the percentage testing positive for influenza is 58%. The UK analyzed most of the viruses screened and identified 3% viruses resistant to oseltamivir but still sensitive to zanamivir.
Idaho was the last US state to get over flu in March, right after Nevada told it good bye.
Flu is almost over, but  allergies are on the rise. High pollen levels, mostly from trees, are bad news for seasonal allergy sufferers.
National Allergy Forecast Map
Tree Pollen in US in March
Knowing what is going on in your area, including flu and pollen levels, will help you to determine the reason for your scratchy throat or headaches. Additional clues include if you feel it in your nose (cold) or behind the nose (allergy), if you have itchiness (allergy) or fever (cold).

Also, flu attacks you gradually while with allergies you get all the symptoms at once. 


The EuroFlu bulletin describes and comments on influenza activity in the 53 countries in the WHO European Region. 










A = Dominant virus A
H1N1 = Dominant virus A(H1N1)
H3N2 = Dominant virus A(H3N2)
H1N2 = Dominant virus A(H1N2)
B = Dominant virus B
A & B = Dominant virus A & B

= : stable clinical activity
+ : increasing clinical activity
- : decreasing clinical activity

Low = no influenza activity or influenza at baseline levels
Medium = usual levels of influenza activity
High = higher than usual levels of influenza activity
Very high = particularly severe levels of influenza activity

No activity = no evidence of influenza virus activity (clinical activity remains at baseline levels)
Sporadic = isolated cases of laboratory confirmed influenza infection
Local outbreak = increased influenza activity in local areas (e.g. a city) within a region,
or outbreaks in two or more institutions (e.g. schools) within a region. Laboratory confirmed.
Regional activity = influenza activity above baseline levels in one or more regions with
a population comprising less than 50% of the country's total population. Laboratory confirmed.
Widespread = influenza activity above baseline levels in one or more regions with a population
comprising 50% or more of the country's population. Laboratory confirmed.










Intensity Geographic
Spread
Impact Sentinel
swabs
Percentage
positive
Dominant
type
ILI per
100,000
ARI per
100,000
Sentinel
SARI
Virology graph
and pie chart
ArmeniaMediumLocalLow20%None0.0 (graphs)106.8 (graphs)






sari
Click here
AustriaLowSporadicLow2751.9%Type A, Subtype pH1N117.9 (graphs)3.0 (graphs)
Click here
AzerbaijanLowSporadicLow190%Type A and B352.8 (graphs)


Click here
BelarusLowSporadicLow3915.4%Type A, Subtype pH1

1211.0 (graphs)
Click here
BelgiumLowSporadic



56.9 (graphs)1486.9 (graphs)
Click here
Bosnia and Herzegovina




Type A, Subtype pH1
(graphs)


Click here
BulgariaLowLocal
20%None0.0 (graphs)886.1 (graphs)
Click here
CroatiaMediumWidespreadLow

Type A, Subtype pH133.8 (graphs)


Click here
CyprusLowSporadicLow


1.9 * (graphs)4.7 * (graphs)
Click here
Czech Republic


2657.7%Type B

(graphs)
Click here
DenmarkLowSporadic
20%None66.8 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
EnglandLowSporadic
2516.0%None7.4 (graphs)408.8 (graphs)
Click here
EstoniaMediumLocal
2825.0%None12.5 (graphs)333.6 (graphs)
Click here
FranceLowSporadicLow250%None0.0 (graphs)1213.3 (graphs)
Click here
GeorgiaMediumWidespreadModerate3287.5%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH1428.1 (graphs)








sari
Click here
GermanyLowRegional
12258.2%Type B0.0 (graphs)1085.4 (graphs)
Click here
GreeceLowLocal
1330.8%Type A, Subtype pH1N196.6 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
HungaryLowSporadicLow1926.3%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH1102.9 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
IcelandMediumRegionalModerate00%
56.6 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
IrelandLowSporadicLow911.1%None5.9 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
IsraelLowSporadicLow2114.3%Type A and B8.8 (graphs)


Click here
ItalyLowRegionalLow1926.3%Type A197.9 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
KazakhstanMediumLocalLow5100.0%None1.4 (graphs)179.5 (graphs)






sari
Click here
Kyrgyzstan


70%None

(graphs)






sari
Click here
LatviaLowRegional
00%Type B (graphs)


Click here
LithuaniaMediumWidespreadLow100%None75.5 (graphs)777.4 (graphs)
Click here
LuxembourgLowSporadic
1421.4%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH11.0 * (graphs)20.8 * (graphs)
Click here
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia




None
(graphs)


Click here
MaltaMediumSporadicLow00%
10.0 * (graphs)0 * (graphs)






sari
Click here
Montenegro





21.2 (graphs)


Click here
Netherlands


1729.4%None (graphs)


Click here
Northern IrelandLowSporadic
00%None14.4 (graphs)328.7 (graphs)
Click here
NorwayLowSporadic
1100.0%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH1N151.1 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
PolandMediumRegional
3627.8%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH199.7 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
PortugalLowNone
40%None6.7 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
Republic of MoldovaMediumSporadicModerate2240.9%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH1N18.1 (graphs)229.3 (graphs)






sari
Click here
RomaniaMediumLocalModerate2441.7%Type B22.8 (graphs)1078.2 (graphs)






sari
Click here
Russian FederationMediumSporadicLow4531.1%Type A, Subtype pH15.5 (graphs)695.3 (graphs)






sari
Click here
ScotlandLowSporadicLow2516.0%Type B2.3 (graphs)242.7 (graphs)
Click here
SerbiaMediumRegionalLow1100.0%None117.3 (graphs)








sari
Click here
SlovakiaMediumSporadicLow540.0%Type A, Subtype pH1257.8 (graphs)1830.7 (graphs)
Click here
SloveniaMediumLocal
850.0%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH18.5 (graphs)1008.7 (graphs)
Click here
SpainLowSporadic
10816.7%Type B31.0 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
SwedenMediumWidespreadLow160%Type B5.7 (graphs)0.0 (graphs)
Click here
SwitzerlandLowLocal
1163.6%Type B and Type A, Subtype pH1102.4 (graphs)


Click here
TurkeyLowSporadicLow11237.5%None6.0 (graphs)


Click here
UkraineMediumLocalLow110%Type A, Subtype pH15.2 * (graphs)624.6 (graphs)






sari
Click here
UzbekistanLowSporadicLow

None

(graphs)
Click here
Europe


91232.7%




Click here